人类会灭绝吗？
Will humans become extinct?
Hello. This is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. I’m Neil.
大家好。这里是BBC教学英语的《六分钟英语》。我是尼尔。
And I'm Sam.
我是萨姆。
In this programme, we’ll be asking looking at some of the many dangers facing humanity,
在本期节目中，我们将探讨人类面临的一些危险，
from climate change and global pandemics to asteroid impacts and nuclear war.
从气候变化和全球流行病到小行星撞击与核战争。
We'll be finding out whether human civilisation can survive these risks,
我们将看看人类文明是否能承受住这些风险，
and looking at some of the related vocabulary as well.
并了解一些相关的词汇。
Do you really think humans could become extinct and end up as dead as the dodo?
你真的认为人类会灭绝，像渡渡鸟一样死透了吗？
Ah, so of course you've heard of the dodo?
啊，所以你一定听说过渡渡鸟吧？
Yes, dodos were large, metre-high birds which died out in the 1600s after being hunted to extinction by humans.
是的，渡渡鸟是一种1米高的大鸟，在17世纪被人类猎杀至灭绝后消失了。
That's right.
没错。
Dodos couldn't fly and weren't very clever.
渡渡鸟不会飞，也不是很聪明。
They didn't hide when sailors with hunting dogs landed on their island.
当水手们带着猎犬登上它们所在的岛屿时，它们没有躲藏起来。
The species was hunted so much that within a century, every single bird had died out.
这个物种被猎杀的如此之多，以至于不到一个世纪，它们就都灭绝了。
But do you know which island the dodo was from, Sam?
但是，萨姆，你知道渡渡鸟来自哪个岛吗？
That's my quiz question for today.
那就是我今天的测试问题。
Was it: a) The Galapagos, b) Mauritius, or c) Fiji?
是……a)加拉帕哥斯群岛，b)毛里求斯，还是c)斐济？
I’ll guess the Galapagos, Neil, because I know many exotic animals live there.
尼尔，我猜是加拉帕哥斯群岛，因为我知道那里生活着许多奇珍异兽。
By the way, that’s also cheered me up a bit because as humans we are much smarter than the dodo!
顺便说一句，那也让我感到高兴，因为作为人类，我们比渡渡鸟聪明多了！
We're far too clever to die out, aren't we?
我们太聪明了，不会灭绝，不是吗？
I'm not sure I agree, Sam.
我不确定自己是否赞同，萨姆。
Lots of the existential risks - the worst possible things that could happen to humanity,
许多生存风险——人类可能遭遇的最糟糕的事情，
such as nuclear war, global pandemics or rogue artificial intelligence, are human-made.
如核战争、全球流行病或人工智能异常，都是人为的。
These threats could have catastrophic consequences for human survival in the 21st century.
这些威胁可能在21世纪给人类生存带来灾难性后果。
That's true.
确实如此。
But existential risks don't only threaten the survival of the human species.
但生存风险不仅威胁着人类的生存。
Instead, they could destroy civilisation as we know it,
相反，它们可能会摧毁我们所知的文明，
leaving pockets of survivors to struggle on in a post-apocalyptic world.
让一小部分幸存者在末日后的世界里挣扎求生。
And it wouldn’t be the first time that has happened, as the BBC World Service programme The Inquiry found out.
BBC全球服务节目发现，那种事情并不是第一次发生。
Simon Beard of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge University explains:
剑桥大学生存风险研究中心的西蒙·比尔德进行了解释：
The historical record suggests that about once every thousand years an event occurs that wipes out about a third of the human population
历史记录表明，大约每隔几千年就会发生一个摧毁约三分之一人口的事件
– so in the Middle Ages, this was the Black Death - huge plague that covered Eurasia,
——所以在中世纪时是黑死病——覆盖亚欧大陆的大瘟疫，
while there was also dramatic global cooling at that time which many people think was related to volcanic eruptions,
而且当时全球也急剧变冷，许多人认为那和火山爆发有关，
and about a third of the global population died.
全球约三分之一的人口死亡。
So, humanity has been facing these risks throughout history, according to the historical record
因此，根据历史记录，人类在整个历史上一直面临着这些风险
– the collection of all written and recorded past events concerning the human race.
——历史记录是指书面记录下来的和人类有关的事件集合。
Yes. Wars and plagues – infectious, epidemic diseases which spread between countries can quickly wipe out
是的。战争和瘟疫——在国家间传播的传染性流行病，可以迅速消灭
– or completely destroy, millions of people.
——或完全摧毁数百万人。
And there's not much we can do to stop disasters like that!
阻止那样的灾难我们无能为力！
True, Sam, but what about individuals who actively work to bring about the end of the world,
没错，萨姆，但是那些想要造成世界末日的人呢？
like apocalyptic terrorists, rampage shooters and fundamentalist cults,
比如制造灾难的恐怖分子，疯狂的枪击者和原教旨主义邪教，
like those who organised the poisonous gas attack on the Tokyo subway.
比如组织用毒气袭击东京地铁的人。
Those are people who want to end human life on Earth and bring about Doomsday
那些人想要结束地球上人类的生命，导致世界末日
- another word for the final, apocalyptic day of the world’s existence.
——世界的最后一天，世界的末日的另一种说法。
Right. And things got even scarier in modern times with the invention of nuclear weapons.
是的。在现代，随着核武器的发明，情况变得更可怕。
During the Cuban Missile Crisis between America and the USSR for example,
例如，在美苏之间的古巴导弹危机期间，
risk experts estimated a 41% probability that human life would be completely wiped out!
风险专家估计人类生命被彻底摧毁的可能性为41%。
Seth Baum of New York's Global Catastrophic Risk Institute explains how human error almost brought about Doomsday:
纽约全球灾难风险研究所的塞思·鲍姆解释了人为因素是如何几乎导致世界末日的。
There are some ways that you could get to a nuclear war without really intending to,
在没有真的打算引发核战争的情况下有一些方法可能会引发核战争，
and probably the biggest example is if you have a false alarm that is mistaken as a nuclear attack,
可能最典型的例子就是当你得到一个误认为是核袭击的假警报时，
and there have been a number of, maybe even very serious false alarms over the years,
而且多年来有很多甚至是非常严重的假警报，
in which one side or the other genuinely believed that they were under nuclear attack,
一方或另一方真的觉得自己要遭到核袭击，
when in fact they were not at all under nuclear attack.
而事实上他们并没有遭到核袭击。
One such false alarm - an incorrect warning given so that people wrongly believe something dangerous is about to happen, came about in 1995,
这样的一个假警报——给出的错误警告，让人们错误地相信危险的事情即将发生——发生在1995年，
when the US sent missiles up into the Earth’s atmosphere to study the aurora borealis, the northern lights.
当时美国将导弹发射到地球大气层中来研究北极光。
Soviet radars picked up the missiles,
苏联雷达发现了这些导弹，
thinking they were nuclear warheads and almost retaliated.
认为它们是核导弹弹头，差一点进行反击。
Nuclear Armageddon was only averted by the actions of one clear-thinking Russian general who decided not to push the red button.
一名思路清晰的俄罗斯将军决定不按下红色按钮进行反击，他的行为避免了核对峙。
Phew! A close shave then!
唷！真惊险啊！
Well, Neil, all this doomongering has made me want to just give it all up and live on a desert island!
好吧，尼尔，所有这种末日言论让我想放弃一切，去荒岛上生活！
Like the dodo eh, Sam?
像渡渡鸟一样，是吗，萨姆？
So, which island would that be?
那么，应该是哪个岛呢？
If you remember, today’s quiz question asked where the dodo was from.
如果你还记得，今天的测试问题是渡渡鸟来自哪里。
I said The Galapagos.
我说是加拉帕哥斯群岛。
And I'm afraid to say it was b) Mauritius.
恐怕答案是b)毛里求斯。
So, to recap, in this programme we’ve been discussing Doomsday – the final day of life on Earth,
总而言之，在这个节目中，我们一直在讨论世界末日——地球上生命的最后一天，
and other existential threats - dangers threatening the survival of humans on the planet.
以及其它生存威胁——威胁到地球上人类生存的危险。
We looked back throughout the historical record - all recorded human history,
我们回顾了所有历史记录——所有记载下来的人类历史，
to see examples of threats which have wiped out, or killed millions of people in the past,
来看看一些关于威胁的例子，它们在过去已经毁掉或杀死了数百万人，
including wars and plagues which spread epidemic diseases between populations.
这些威胁包括战争以及在人口之间传播流行病的瘟疫。
And we’ve seen how modern dangers, like nuclear war and climate change, further reduce the probability of human survival.
我们已经看到了像核战争和气候变化这样的现代危险是如何进一步降低人类生存可能性的。
But Sam, it's not all doom and gloom!
但是，萨姆，也并不全是厄运与苦难！
The same scientific intelligence which spilt the atom could also find solutions to our human-made problems in the 21st century,
原子方面的相同科学智慧也可以找到21世纪人为问题的解决方法，
don't you think?
你不这样认为吗？
So, the end of the world might be a false alarm – or unfounded warning – after all!
所以，世界末日可能终究是虚惊一场——或毫无根据的警告！
Let's hope we'll all still be here next time for another edition of 6 Minute English.
希望我们下次还会在这里播报另一期《六分钟英语》。
Bye for now!
再见了。
Byebye.
再见。